Mostafa Arabi*, Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour, Hadi Ghavami, Ali Keramatzadeh
In this study the effects of shocks caused by climate change scenarios (IPCC1, IPCC2 and IPCC3) on Iran’s macroeconomic sectors (agriculture sector value added, industry sector value added, services sector value added and total welfare) was studied. For this purpose, required data was gathered from central bank of Iran, statistical centre of Iran and Iran Meteorological Organization during 1988-2018. Also, for data analysing the new Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model and Impulse Response Functions (IRF) were applied. Results indicated that climate change reduces the value added of agriculture sector and industry sector while increase the value added of services sector. Also, climate change reduces the total welfare. In addition, between three studied scenarios, IPCC1, IPCC2 and IPCC3 have the highest effect on value added of studied sectors respectively. Finally, according to negative effects of climate change especially on agriculture sector, suitable water resources management through: increasing water efficiency in agriculture sector (as the high consumed sector), applying modern irrigation methods, evaporate reduction form dam’s surface were suggested.
