Nazari P, Kardavany H, Farajirad P and Abdolreza A
In this study, the uncertainty of the effects of climate change on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the watershed done using the output of models MPEH5, HADCM3 and IPCM4 under two scenarios for 2045-2065 period. After performance of LARS-WG model for downscaling of rainfall and temperature variations, the monthly change rainfall and temperature evaluated for the 2065-2045 period relative to 2010-1983 base period. Results showed that all three models based on two scenarios reduce the amount of rainfall and increases in average temperature in the region. The average annual temperature rise according to the scenario A2, 2/12°C and scenario B1, 1/12°C. The amount of rainfall decreases for the period 2045-2065 under the scenario A2, -6/1 and the scenario B1, -1/4 per cent. To study the effects of climate change on monthly runoff regime, production variables was used to the model of rainfall- runoff IHACRES after that runoff was predicted for the period 2065-2045. The results showed that annual river flow reduced under the A2 scenario -17/2 percent and the B1 scenario -19/4 per cent. The overall results showed that despite the uncertainty in climate models MPEH5, HADCM3 and IPCM4 under the A2 and B1 in the amount of temperature increase and rainfall decreases and negative effects of these changes on the runoff area.
